| The International Forecaster February 14, 2009 We have been fortunate enough to make some important calls over the past ten years. The top of the stock market in early April of 2000; the beginning of the gold bull market in June 2000; 9/11 in November ten months before it happened; the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars; the beginning of the real estate bubble; the top of that market in June of 2005; the beginning of the subprime fiasco in 2006 and the beginning of the commercial real estate freeze. We also forecast the terrible financial conditions facing states and the freezing up of insurance and the municipal bond market. We called the recession in February 2007 and told readers to get out of the market at 14,000. That's with the exception of gold and silver and oil shares. The recession was right on schedule. The depression that began two weeks ago happened quicker than we had anticipated, but it is here and now. We predicted a fall in consumption, which we estimate at 71% of GDP, a rise in savings, which is now 2.8%, and a fall in debt service not only in real estate, but also in loans and credit card loans. Massive losses continue probably some additional $40 trillion from just 9/08 to 12/09 alone in wealth destruction. Those who follow and live off the Illuminist line favor a large, deep stimulus and if that doesn't work than a bigger one in a year. What America needs is job growth, but that cannot happen in any meaningful way until we erect tariffs on goods and services. America has never been able too and will never be able to compete with cheap labor. Link to Article |